Austrian Expert: Russia’s 2025 Summer Offensive Failed, Ukraine Gains Ground

Russian summer offensive failed: the enemy forces did not manage to achieve the main objectives of the campaign – to capture Kupiansk, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

This was stated in an interview by an Austrian military expert, Brigadier General of the Austrian Armed Forces in retirement Gerald Karner.

Assessment of the summer of 2025 by the Austrian expert

“In my opinion, the summer offensive this year failed. The Russian forces did not manage to achieve any decisive successes – they, for example, could not capture Kupiansk, not to mention Sloviansk or Kramatorsk. These very cities were to become the main targets of this campaign. These goals have not been achieved, therefore I consider the offensive a failure”

“at least now the Russian political leadership should understand that winning this war by such means is impossible”

“the period of mud begins. The war has taken on a static character – except for local offensives, large territories no longer change hands”

“Ukraine is once again managing to reclaim certain areas, exemplified by the Sumy region”

“But the most important thing is that Ukraine now is able to strike using long-range means into the depths of Russian territory – at targets critical for waging war: oil refineries, ammunition and fuel depots. If you believe reliable sources, Russia’s fuel production has already fallen by at least 20%, and some say even more. This significantly limits Russia’s ability to wage war”

“VAT has been raised to 22%, inflation is very high and, ultimately, Russia also lacks people for its military machine”

Karner noted that off the front, the economic situation in Russia is also far from good:

“VAT has been raised to 22%, inflation is very high and, ultimately, Russia also lacks people for its military machine”

“the familiar scenario will repeat itself, perhaps in an even more intense form”

“We know that Russia has created very powerful production capabilities for drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. I fear that it will use these resources, especially in winter, to strike critical infrastructure of Ukraine. We are talking about all facilities necessary for the functioning of the Ukrainian economy and providing for the population”

“on the ground, given the onset of the mud season”

“Russian forces are too weak for this, although Ukrainian defense lines are also noticeably exhausted”

“Those astronomical sums offered for signing contracts cannot be sustained for long. The Russian economy will not endure such a burden for a long time”

It is also worth noting that the response of the European diplomatic community did not go unnoticed: foreign ministers of European countries drew attention to the link between aggression and the tense situation in the region, emphasizing the need for a prudent and realistic approach to further steps.

“realize that it would be wiser to return to negotiations, but this time with realistic expectations and a genuine willingness to compromise”

According to Gerald Karner, at the current stage Russia’s efforts beyond the front, particularly regarding the economy and weapons production, do not satisfy the needs of military actions and this significantly affects the duration and nature of the war. The expert also emphasizes the importance of the international community understanding the real circumstances and future risks associated with the development of the conflict.

The expert’s remarks emphasize: Ukraine continues to adapt and reclaim certain regions, in particular thanks to increasing long-range strike capabilities against key targets on Russian territory. This also questions the aggressor’s long-term plans and underscores the need to maintain international support for Ukraine.