Azerbaijan-Russia Tensions Rise After Diaspora Raids and Safarov Deaths

On June 27, Russian security forces conducted raids on Azerbaijani diaspora centers, resulting in the detention of over fifty individuals. Some of them sustained injuries, and the Safarov brothers – 55-year-old Ziyaddin and 60-year-old Huseyn – died. Russia suspects them of murders committed in the 2000s. The brothers’ bodies were delivered to Azerbaijan on June 30, where an examination revealed numerous beatings.

The Baku authorities quickly responded to the situation: they canceled cultural events involving Russians, as well as several official visits. In particular, heads of the Russian propaganda media outlet Sputnik’s branch were detained. The downing of an Azerbaijani plane over Grozny, a long-standing sore point in relations between the countries, was also recalled.

On June 29, Azerbaijan canceled all cultural events involving Russian companies, including concerts by Leonid Agutin, Anzhelika Varum, and Basta. On July 1, the General Prosecutor’s Office opened a case regarding torture and intentional murder of citizens of Azerbaijani origin in Russia. Azerbaijani parliamentarians refused to travel to Moscow for a joint meeting with Russian deputies and also canceled the visit of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk.

A representative of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Health, Adalyat Hasanov, noted that the conclusions about the Safarov brothers’ deaths in Russia and Azerbaijan differ significantly. The Russian forensic examination cited acute ischemic heart disease as the cause of death, while the Azerbaijani examination revealed numerous bruises and hemorrhages.

The Azerbaijani Prosecutor’s Office appealed to Moscow to investigate the circumstances of the Safarov brothers’ deaths and the beatings of other Azerbaijanis. Russian Ambassador Mikhail Yevdokimov was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where a thorough investigation and punishment of those responsible are expected. They also reminded about the lack of investigation into the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash, which, according to President Ilham Aliyev, was shot down by Russian air defense.

Causes of the Escalation and Azerbaijan’s Response

The incident with the plane that crashed near Aktau in Kazakhstan significantly affected the atmosphere in Azerbaijan-Russia relations. President Aliyev stated that the plane was shot down by Russian air defense, while Russia initially denied responsibility, later apologized, but has yet to provide compensation.

Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Sergey Danilov believes this situation intensified tensions and was one of the reasons Azerbaijan refused to participate in the Victory Day celebrations in Moscow on May 9.

Another factor in the escalation was a statement by Putin’s aide Vladimir Medinsky, who compared the frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine to the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan reacted sharply, stating that Karabakh has never been a disputed territory and effectively labeled Russia as an aggressor against Ukraine.

Experts note that Russia is trying to contain Azerbaijan’s regional strengthening, which, thanks to changes in global politics – particularly Trump’s rise to power in the US and close ties with Turkey – has gained more opportunities to diversify its foreign policy.

Detention of Sputnik Employees and the Information War

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed complaints against Russian media for displays of ethnic intolerance, particularly regarding coverage of raids in Yekaterinburg, where Azerbaijanis were labeled an “ethnic criminal group.” Special attention was drawn to the propaganda project Sputnik, represented in Azerbaijan by the website “Sputnik Azerbaijan.”

Due to failure to meet requirements for parity in journalists’ work, the Azerbaijani government ordered the suspension of Sputnik’s activities. On June 30, police detained seven editorial staff members, including project head Igor Kartavykh and chief editor Yevgeny Belousov. They are suspected of cooperating with the FSB, and criminal cases have been opened against the detainees for fraud, illegal entrepreneurship, and legalization of property obtained by criminal means.

Sputnik’s content reflects the official Russian position, spreading propaganda about events in Ukraine and internal political issues in the US. Former Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov believes Russian intelligence services use the media to form a network of bots that conduct propaganda under Moscow’s instructions.

Russia’s Loss of Influence in the Caucasus

Experts note that Azerbaijan is actively strengthening its position in the region, aiming to create a trade corridor bypassing Russia. This provokes resistance from Moscow. Director of the Baku analytical center “Topchubashov Center,” Rusif Huseynov, emphasizes that Azerbaijan’s diversified foreign policy – alliances with Turkey, Pakistan, Israel, and China – has reduced its dependence on Russia.

Political scientist Sergey Taran believes the war in Ukraine ended Russia’s dominance in the Caucasus, forcing it to withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh and lose influence in Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Azerbaijani media stress that after the victory in Karabakh and the withdrawal of troops, Baku lost its strategic dependence on Moscow, and Russia lost its military and political presence in the region.

To finally “expel” Russia from the Caucasus, coordinated actions are needed among Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, particularly in the fields of economy, trade, and protection against Russian propaganda in information security.

Armenia has also begun distancing itself from Russia: Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the country is not an ally of Russia regarding Ukraine, froze participation in the CSTO, and stopped paying contributions. Recently, a Russian oligarch, Samvel Karapetyan, was detained in Armenia, and plans are underway to consider banning the broadcast of Russian TV channels.