EU forecasts €135.7 billion aid for Ukraine in 2026-2027

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in a letter to EU member states stated that, according to IMF forecasts, Ukraine will need about €135.7 billion for 2026 and 2027. Such needs are accounted for in a document that is to be considered at upcoming EU meetings.

“Without stable and intensified support in 2026 and beyond, Ukraine risks ending up in an economic dead end that would undermine its ability to defend itself and sustain the core functions of the state”

The President of the European Commission stressed that the EU must provide predictable and stable support for Ukraine’s security and defense.

“This is extremely necessary to strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield and at the negotiating table”

Von der Leyen said that Ukraine’s military needs are estimated at a minimum of €103.2 billion. Kyiv could finance about half of this amount, leaving a deficit of roughly €51.6 billion.

“This deficit must be covered by partners, in addition to the necessary macro-financial support”

According to the head of the European Commission, financial pressure is expected to be especially acute in 2026–2027: Ukraine’s total unmet needs could exceed €70 billion and €64 billion respectively. This reflects the ongoing intensity of the war, reduced military aid in kind, and the need to sustain the state’s core functions as well as ramp up critically important defense and industrial capacities.

“It is expected that financial pressure will be especially acute in 2026 and 2027, when Ukraine’s total unmet needs could exceed €70 billion and €64 billion. This reflects the ongoing intensity of the war, the reduction of military aid in kind, the need to support the state’s core functions and the continuous ramping up of critically important defense and industrial capacities”

The European Commission also estimated that existing obligations of international partners, including ERA loans, will largely be exhausted in the near term.

Possible Reparations Loan: What Is Known

On September 10, Ursula von der Leyen proposed using a reparations loan to Ukraine, which would be based on the proceeds of Russian assets held abroad.

Approximately €210 billion of Russian assets held in Europe are kept in the Belgian depository Euroclear. Of these, about €175 billion have already been converted into cash, which could serve as the basis for a loan. At the same time, the EU first aims to recover €45 billion of the G7 loan agreed last year, leaving about €130 billion for a new mechanism.

According to Valdis Dombrovskis, decisions on the amount will be made after an assessment by the International Monetary Fund.

EU officials also said the European Union is considering providing a reparations loan to Ukraine of about €130 billion.

On October 20, one EU diplomat said that on October 23 the EU will discuss using frozen Russian assets for a reparations loan to Ukraine. Although Hungary opposes the compensatory mechanism, Brussels is aiming for consensus among the 27 member states.

At the end of September it became known that the European Commission had developed a tool that would allow the use of Russian frozen assets. The first leaders’ level discussion took place on October 1 at an informal summit in Copenhagen.