NATO Probes Possible Deliberate Russian Airspace Violations Over Poland and Estonia

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte clarifies whether Russia’s actions could have deliberately violated the airspace of Poland and Estonia. Such remarks were made during a Tuesday meeting, September 30, ahead of the Security Commissioners’ Collegium meeting.

According to him, against the backdrop of Russian drone activity in Poland and the appearance of MiG-31s in Estonia, as well as current events in Denmark, NATO is continuing to investigate the causes of these incidents. In the case of Poland and Estonia, the conclusion is unequivocal: these could be actions by Russia. At the same time, an assessment is underway of whether these actions were deliberate or accidental. Even if one subscribes to the view that there was no conscious intent, the events are regarded as reckless and unacceptable.

“We have seen what has happened over the past few weeks with drones in Poland, with MiG-31s in Estonia. Also, what is happening now in Denmark. In Denmark we are still figuring out what lies behind this, but when it comes to Poland and Estonia, it is clear that these are Russians. We are still assessing whether this was deliberate or not. But even if not – it is reckless and unacceptable.”

Chronicle of events on the eastern flank and allies’ reaction

In the overnight hours of September 10, Russian drones violated Polish airspace. About four of the nineteen drones were shot down, one drone damaged a house and a car in the Lublin Voivodeship, debris was found in several villages. Poland invoked Article 4 of the NATO Treaty to discuss the incident; Prime Minister Donald Tusk stressed that no additional restrictions would be imposed as a result of this incident.

The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the drones that attacked Ukraine could have crossed the Polish border, and expressed willingness to consult with Warsaw. The Kremlin has not yet provided an official comment.

On September 12, Mark Rutte announced the start of the “Eastern Watch” operation on the eastern flank of NATO. Its aim is to neutralize specific threats related to the use of drones and to strengthen coordination in Poland and Romania. On September 14, the President of Poland Karol Nawrocki signed a decision permitting troops from participating NATO member states to remain on the territory of NATO member states within the framework of this operation.

On September 13, in the northern regions of Romania an air alert was declared due to the threat of attack drones. At 18:12 two F-16 fighters were scrambled, which around 19:00 intercepted a Russian drone over the Danube. The Ministry of Defense clarified that the drone did not fly over populated areas and did not pose a direct threat to civilians. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded, noting that the Russian drone had been over Romania for about 50 minutes.

On September 19, three Russian fighters were in Estonian airspace for 12 minutes. Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna called this a violation of territorial integrity and the principles of the UN Charter, which obligate restraint from the use of force.

“a violation of territorial integrity and the principles of the UN Charter that obligate us to refrain from threats or use of force”

In summary, NATO continues to thoroughly investigate the causes of the incidents involving Poland’s and Estonia’s airspaces and determine whether Russia’s actions were deliberate or accidental. There is noted strengthening of defense on the eastern flank and heightened coordination among allies within the Alliance.