Tropical Storm Imelda Nears Bahamas, Expected to Strengthen and Impact US Southeast Coast

Tropical Storm Imelda formed over the Bahamas on Sunday afternoon and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane. While the forecast for the East Coast of the United States isn’t as pessimistic, the storm will still affect the region.

According to the National Hurricane Center, Imelda has maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph (roughly 64 km/h) and is currently located about 335 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, as of 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for central and northern Bahamas: the storm is bringing heavy rainfall. Expected rainfall amounts range from 4 to 12 inches over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba, which could lead to flash flooding.

The storm’s track is forecast to move away from direct impact on the East Coast over the next 24–36 hours. After moving along Florida’s northern coast, a sharp turn to the east and an offshore track is expected, with strengthening to hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday.

The Hurricane Forecast Center canceled the tropical storm warnings for portions of the East Coast of Florida in line with updated forecasts.

Shift in Trajectory and Impacts on the Coast

Imelda joined Humberto in the Atlantic. The powerful Category 4 Humberto rapidly intensified to Category 5 on Saturday over the warm open-ocean waters and could influence Imelda’s future.

Imelda’s slower-than-expected northward motion means Humberto may lose its influence on the U.S. southern coast, but the weather pattern will try to draw the storm closer to land again. On Tuesday Humberto may pull away from the coast, but the situation will remain dynamic.

It seems unlikely that the trajectory will change significantly again, but residents of the U.S. Southeast coast should continue to monitor forecasts.

The risk of significant wind impacts along the coast of the Southeastern United States is decreasing, but those in the area should continue to monitor the latest forecasts

The first impacts of the storm could reach the region as early as Monday, with the eastern parts of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas likely to encounter the strongest gusts.

Rain and flooding will affect the Carolinas’ coast; although the center of the storm may remain offshore, the storm surge and beach erosion are also possible. The rainfall forecast has eased: 2–6 inches are expected across the Carolinas by Wednesday morning.

Wind gusts along the Southeastern coast will strengthen early to midweek, bringing powerful gusts.

Officials in the southern portion of the East Coast are preparing for the storm. The governor of South Carolina has declared a state of emergency and activated local readiness plans, mobilizing agencies to respond to strong winds, flooding, and storm surge.

The City of Charleston declared a state of emergency over the weekend and began distributing sandbags and carrying out drainage system cleanup operations.

Meanwhile in the open Atlantic, Humberto continued to strengthen to Category 5, but remained over open waters under strong warm currents and favorable conditions. On Sunday its intensity eased somewhat to the upper end of Category 4, and forecasts expect it to remain a powerful Category 4 storm at the start of the week.

This is not a direct threat to the United States; the storm will likely pass far west of Bermuda. Nevertheless, Bermuda can expect rains and gusts on Tuesday–Wednesday. Bermuda Weather Service has issued a tropical storm warning, and Imelda could approach Bermuda late in the week.

Residents of the Bahamas, the southeastern coast, and Bermuda should stay alert according to forecasts, but the United States appears likely to avoid a serious blow this time.