Ukraine Fuel Prices Forecast: Impact of Import Restrictions and Tax Changes in 2025

In the coming months, the situation with fuel prices in Ukraine will depend on several key factors: whether the rejection of imports of Indian and Turkish petroleum products due to possible Russian origin will continue, how gas-station networks will respond to changes in excise taxes, and how the overall market conditions will evolve. We examine what is happening now in the country’s fuel market.

As of mid-September, the average price of fuel on the market was about 58.72 UAH per liter of A-95 gasoline and 55.87 UAH per liter of diesel. Experts forecast various scenarios: gasoline could rise to 62–65 UAH per liter, and sometimes even to 70 UAH; diesel – to 65–70 UAH per liter. Signals of possible further growth are emerging, underscoring the need for careful monitoring of trends.

According to enkorr, on September 15 the Security Service of Ukraine addressed the Energy Customs with a warning about restricting imports of Indian petroleum products that may originate from Russia. Restrictions are planned for October. The share of Indian fuel in Ukraine’s imports is significant: according to the Analytical Group A-95, more than 75% of fuel through the Port of Constanta has Turkish (34%) and Indian (43%) origin; imports of Indian fuel over eight months have risen significantly. Such steps could affect supply chains and prices at gas stations.

Changes in the fuel market are connected not only with geopolitics. In 2023, Ukraine already introduced a requirement for laboratory checks of fuel from Turkish, Georgian and Moldovan ports; in 2025 the circumstances repeat: the country is seeking new routes and suppliers to maintain market stability and price competitiveness. Experts emphasize that diversification of supplies reduces dependence on individual partners and allows rapid adaptation to fluctuations in demand and price quotations.

Outlook for drivers and the market

If fuel prices rise, this could affect the overall cost of transportation and household expenses. However, the market has diverse sources of supply and flexible routes, allowing adaptation faster than before. Traders have the opportunity to redirect supplies between directions and adjust margins depending on competition and demand.

“Indeed, what we hear in the market is that starting in October sanctions will be imposed not only on Indian manufacturers but also on Constanta.”

Regarding long-term forecasts, HSBC bank may see an average Brent price in 2026 of around $65 per barrel or lower. Such estimates depend on the pace of overproduction and global demand. Experts also emphasize that Ukrainian gas stations can adapt to lower world prices through diversification of supplies, but the overall impact on retail prices will depend on a combination of external and internal factors.

“There is now a consolidated forecast that oil production by the end of the year will rise to 3-4 million barrels per day. And this, of course, will pull quotations downward.”

Along with changes in world markets, drivers in Ukraine should count on price fluctuations and supply flexibility. It is important to monitor official regulator data and analytical centers to better plan fuel expenses in the coming months.