Ukraine Strengthens Energy Resilience Amid Russian Strikes Ahead of Winter

Powerless Kyiv after a massive combined Russian attack on October 10, 2025.
Getty Images/Bloomberg/Andrew Kravchenko

In the early hours of Friday, October 10, Russia launched massive strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing multi-hour power outages in the eastern and southern regions, as well as in Kyiv.

“Russia is openly trying to destroy our civilian infrastructure, and right now, before winter, the gas infrastructure, generation and transmission of electricity”

The state of the energy system before winter and the demands of the moment

After a brief lull in spring as part of the energy truce, Russia resumed and intensified strikes on the energy sector and gas generation. In recent years, Ukraine’s energy system and defense forces have adapted to such threats, quickly eliminating the consequences and maintaining grid stability under crisis conditions.

Before the full-scale invasion, the country’s energy sector had about 55 GW of capacity. As a result of the occupation of parts of the territory and massive strikes, this figure diminished. According to experts, a significant portion of critically important capacities has already been restored, and additional resources are planned to be completed by winter to support stable supply.

The intensity of shelling was mostly lower than in 2022–2024, which allowed better preparation for the heating season. Ukraine has also improved the balance between demand and supply thanks to the restoration of part of the capacities and the improvement of energy-flow management systems.

Export indicators for September show a recovery of external markets: about 635,100 MWh, indicating the return of part of external trade and stabilization of the domestic sector. Imports could reach up to 2.1 GW depending on the weather in Europe and the continent’s needs.

As part of strengthening the resilience of the energy sector, emphasis is placed on protecting energy facilities: substations are upgraded with security systems, and the country has introduced battery storage with a total capacity of about 0.2 GW, which stores electricity during stable supply and releases it as needed. Ukrenergo has also signed contracts for fast reserves totaling 0.78 GW, which helps compensate for short-term load fluctuations.

In addition, experts warn about heating supply risks: in border and front-line regions, there may be network overheating due to the use of electric heaters and heating disruptions in homes. The grid is highly branched, reducing vulnerability to large-scale strikes, but it requires constant maintenance and modernization.

Experts believe that to increase stability, distributed generation should be rolled out more quickly: reduce dependence on a few giant plants and create smaller-scale capacities in different regions. The process of decentralization takes years, but steps toward modernization and restoration of the energy system are already underway, which noticeably reduces winter risks.

“It is better to prepare for the worst and then get through the winter relatively stably than to say that everything will be fine and not be ready for a crisis”

Summary: Ukraine continues to demonstrate its ability to hold the energy front through grid modernization, active protection of facilities, and the development of distributed generation. What remains crucial are the speed of threat response, the stability of supply, and close cooperation with European partners during a challenging heating season.