US Government Shutdown Looms Amid Budget Negotiation Deadlock

The U.S. Capitol is reflected on a surface on September 24. Nathan Howard/Reuters

The United States is once again nearing a temporary government shutdown ahead of a deadline scheduled for Tuesday evening.

President Donald Trump is set to meet with top Democrats the day after a previously canceled meeting. There are currently no overt concessions from either side regarding extending the expanded tax credits under Obamacare.

“Nothing to discuss.”

As is usually the case in such situations, the scenario resembles a game of chicken: each side waits until the last moment – or even on the brink of a shutdown – and only then will it become clear who will compromise.

So, who will blink first?

The dynamics of blame for a shutdown: the political price and voter sentiment

On one hand, those who push for concessions typically bear the most criticism. Public polls show that citizens do not see budget fights as a platform to solve real problems and do not view government brinkmanship as a way to run the country.

On the other hand, the concessions Democrats are seeking – currently the minority in both chambers – may put Republicans in an awkward position compared with past crises. Earlier poll data hinted that the public generally evaluates who benefits from a particular move, but often remains critical of using brinkmanship as a tactic.

Early signals from public opinion are already appearing.

History and current public opinion trends

The history of using crises as a tool of pressure by the opposition and the majority shows a complex arc: Republicans have repeatedly sought concessions – from revising Obamacare to funding certain initiatives – but often backed down when the public did not see value in such a tactic.

A key takeaway is that most Americans – almost unanimously – dislike using a government shutdown as a policy tool.

According to a 2023 Quinnipiac University poll, 87% of respondents considered the use of a shutdown as a political lever to be “inappropriate” (versus 11%).

Similar conclusions were voiced by CNN: 81% were opposed, 19% in favor of threatening a government shutdown to achieve goals.

All this suggests: Democrats, who are currently in the minority, should not view a shutdown as a strong position.

However, the situation changes when talking about the real political price for voters. A prior Strength in Numbers-Verasight poll, conducted nearly two weeks earlier, found that 34% of Americans blamed Republicans in Congress for a government shutdown, 23% blamed Democrats; 34% would split the responsibility evenly.

“We may have this conversation. But first, release the hostage. Release the American people.”

In this context, health care questions and the Medicaid program gain additional resonance: support for population health looks more favorable to the Democratic Party, while scaling back Medicaid could complicate opponents’ position in financing talks. On the other hand, Trump’s opponents argue that certain health-care benefits should be considered separately from the broader budget fight to avoid undermining public trust in the government.

Although today the Democratic Party may have an easier position on health-care demands, the real consequences for the political scene depend on whether both sides can reach a compromise before subsidies and tax incentives become a topic of negotiations again.

Ultimately, the responsibility for a possible government shutdown depends on many factors: political direction, voter mood, and the willingness of the parties to find common ground in the final days of negotiations. At present, neither side has dropped its demands from the agenda, keeping a high likelihood of even a prolonged shutdown.

In summary, the budget drama has often unfolded around who can secure a compromise rather than who among its participants is to blame for the crisis. The impact on ratings and public trust is tested anew each time, and predicting the exact course of events is not easy – but transparency of demands and willingness to engage in constructive dialogue remain decisive factors.